German export businesses should brace for a prolonged period of subdued activity in 2026 within their two most significant markets, the United States and China, as the prospect of a strong rebound appears distant. According to Dirk Jandura, president of the BGA trade association, there is no indication of a swift recovery, only a potential brief respite from current economic pressures.
The challenges facing German exporters are multifaceted, encompassing both external trade barriers and internal structural issues. Specifically, tariffs imposed by the U.S. on European Union goods have created considerable friction in transatlantic commerce, adding ongoing pressure on profit margins for German firms. Domestically, Germany continues to grapple with a relatively strong euro, elevated energy expenses, burdensome bureaucratic processes, and insufficient investment, all of which act as headwinds against export growth.
In China, German exporters are encountering difficulties due to industrial policies that increasingly favor local manufacturers. This trend has diminished demand for German products, particularly in vital sectors such as automotive, mechanical engineering, and chemicals, where Chinese competitors are making substantial inroads. Consequently, many German companies are adapting by establishing production facilities within China or redirecting their investments to other Asian economies. While this strategy often helps stabilize global sales figures, it concurrently results in a reduction of direct exports from Germany, reshaping the country's export landscape.
In these challenging global economic times, adaptability and strategic foresight are crucial for national economies. By understanding evolving market dynamics and implementing innovative solutions, countries can mitigate adverse impacts and discover new avenues for growth and prosperity. This proactive approach ensures resilience and a positive outlook for the future.