As the calendar flips to a new year, market analysts predict that some of 2024's most beleaguered stocks could experience a temporary resurgence. This phenomenon, driven by factors like tax-loss harvesting and historical market anomalies, may offer fleeting opportunities for investors.
Unlock Potential Gains in January with Strategic Investment Moves
Understanding Market Anomalies and Tax-Loss Harvesting
The final weeks of December often see investors selling off their worst-performing assets to realize capital losses. This practice, known as tax-loss harvesting, allows them to offset gains and reduce tax liabilities. According to Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, this behavior can lead to a notable bounce in these stocks during the early days of January. Historically, the worst performers from the previous year have outperformed by an average of 2.5 percentage points from late December through January. However, this rebound is typically short-lived, with many of these stocks reversing their gains and underperforming again by February and March.Senyek's analysis highlights that while this pattern has been consistent over time, it does not guarantee sustained performance. Investors should be cautious and consider the broader economic context when making decisions based on this anomaly. The cyclical nature of market trends underscores the importance of thorough research and strategic planning.Dollar General: A Discount Store Facing Headwinds
Dollar General, one of the companies on Wolfe’s list, experienced a challenging year in 2024. Shares plummeted nearly 44%, reflecting a combination of economic pressures and operational challenges. The discount retailer revised its earnings outlook downward, projecting earnings per share (EPS) between $5.50 and $5.90 for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2025. This adjustment reflects tighter margins and slower sales growth compared to earlier forecasts. Bank of America also adjusted its EPS estimates for Dollar General, lowering projections for the 2026 fiscal year from $6.90 to $6.15. Despite these setbacks, the bank remains optimistic about Dollar General's long-term prospects. Analyst Robert Ohmes noted multiple early signs indicating the success of Dollar General's "Back to Basics" strategy. He highlighted increasing visibility into strategic initiatives and market share gains due to competitor closures, which could improve sales and profitability in the latter half of 2025.Intel's Struggles and Strategic Overhaul
Intel, once a semiconductor giant, faced significant challenges in 2024. Shares declined by more than 60%, marking the company's worst performance in years. Intel struggled to adapt to the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence (AI) landscape, leading to its replacement by Nvidia in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The company embarked on a restructuring effort, including cost-cutting measures and workforce reductions. Additionally, Intel announced plans to transform its foundry business into a subsidiary, signaling a shift in its business model.CEO Pat Gelsinger's abrupt departure in December added another layer of uncertainty. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse emphasized the magnitude of Intel's challenges, particularly regarding its FoundryCo strategy. While there are no immediate solutions, Intel's ongoing efforts to restructure and innovate may position it for future growth. Investors will need to closely monitor the company's progress and adaptability in the face of industry shifts.Potential Bounceback Candidates Beyond Tech and Retail
Wolfe Research identified several other companies that could experience a temporary boost in early 2025. Dexcom, a leader in continuous glucose monitoring systems, saw its stock drop significantly in 2024 due to competitive pressures and supply chain disruptions. Estee Lauder, a global cosmetics brand, also faced headwinds from changing consumer preferences and macroeconomic factors. Enphase Energy, a renewable energy company, encountered challenges related to supply chain issues and regulatory changes.Each of these firms has unique factors contributing to their underperformance, but they share the potential for a short-term rebound as the market recalibrates. Investors should approach these opportunities with a balanced perspective, considering both the historical data and current market conditions. By leveraging insights from market anomalies and strategic analysis, investors can make informed decisions that align with their financial goals.READ MORE