This week began with surprising shifts in Cuba's informal foreign exchange market. Notably, the U.S. dollar experienced a rise against the Cuban peso, while both the euro and the freely convertible currency remained unchanged. The dollar climbed from 365 pesos to 367 within 24 hours, signaling a break from recent stability. Meanwhile, the euro stayed at 380 pesos, and the MLC was steady at 265 pesos. Experts attribute these fluctuations primarily to high demand for dollars and supply constraints in the informal sector, alongside broader economic tensions in the country.
On Monday morning, April 28, 2025, the Cuban informal exchange market showed distinct trends among major currencies. The U.S. dollar saw an uptick, rising by two pesos compared to its rate on Sunday. This increase came as a surprise, given the relative calm observed in previous days. Analysts suggest that such movements are common after weekends when informal economic activities resume. High demand for dollars, combined with limited availability, drives this volatility. Additionally, the ongoing economic challenges faced by the nation exacerbate these fluctuations.
In contrast, the euro and MLC exhibited remarkable stability during this period. The absence of significant changes in their exchange rates could be attributed to fewer transactions involving these currencies compared to the dollar. The euro remains less frequently traded than the dollar, which dominates store purchases and remittances. Similarly, the MLC continues to play a critical role in state-run stores, contributing to its consistent value in this context.
The dynamics of the informal market highlight the complexities faced by Cubans navigating foreign currency exchanges. Volatility in this market directly impacts purchasing power, as it serves as the primary reference point for buying and selling foreign currencies. With official channels often insufficient or inefficient, many citizens depend on the informal market to secure essential goods priced in foreign currencies. Economic uncertainty and scarcity further intensify pressures on exchange rates.
As the informal market continues to influence daily life in Cuba, understanding its fluctuations becomes increasingly important. While the dollar's recent rise may reflect short-term trends, the overarching theme of volatility persists. For those reliant on the parallel market, these shifts underscore the challenges posed by limited foreign currency access and economic instability. Ultimately, the interplay between demand, supply, and broader economic factors shapes the landscape of Cuba's informal exchange market.