The United States Department of the Treasury's semi-annual report highlights ongoing economic monitoring, particularly focusing on countries with significant trade surpluses. Among those under observation is Vietnam, due to its extensive goods trade surplus with the US and notable current account position. The report also casts a spotlight on China for its perceived lack of transparency, hinting at potential measures should Beijing intervene to hinder renminbi appreciation. Although no nation has been labeled a "currency manipulator" in 2024, enhanced scrutiny now extends to nine countries: China, Japan, Ireland, Vietnam, Singapore, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, and Switzerland.
Among these nations, Japan and South Korea remain under close examination because of their historical intervention practices and consistent trade surpluses with the United States. Taiwan and Singapore have joined the list due to their adherence to specific current account and foreign exchange criteria. Germany persists on the watch list despite eurozone monetary policies being determined by the European Central Bank, owing to its prolonged current account surplus. Ireland finds itself newly included due to increasing high-tech and pharmaceutical exports to the US, while Switzerland reappears following a substantial rise in its trade surplus.
Vietnam recorded an impressive goods trade surplus exceeding $105 billion with the United States in 2023, marking it as the highest among all US trading partners. Its presence on the monitoring list dates back to 2019. A country qualifies for inclusion if it meets at least two out of three criteria: a goods trade surplus with the US exceeding $15 billion, a current account surplus surpassing 3% of GDP, and persistent one-sided foreign exchange intervention.
It is important to note that being placed on the currency monitoring list does not automatically result in sanctions or denote currency manipulation. Instead, it serves as an indicator of economic activities requiring further analysis and understanding within the global financial landscape. This ongoing surveillance aims to ensure fair trade practices and promote equitable economic growth across international borders.